But it does seem like the Bank of Japan has drawn a line in the sand, so JPY bears are cautious

As long as retail, governmental, and institutional investors remain wary of riskier assets, we can expect gold prices to remain elevated.

However, with so many central banks expressing concerns over the dollar's strength, many market players seem to be in profit-taking mode, which has seen the DXY stall at 105.97.

With rhetoric from policymakers in the US now surely more hawkish, there seems to be a generous upside for the USD vs. all major currencies in the coming months. 

The disappointing retail data had an immediate and severe effect on the EUR/USD, with price falling below 1.078 for the first time since 20th February.

The Fed also raised its projections for economic growth in 2024, up from 1.4% to 2.1%, signalling that the US economy’s much-discussed “soft landing” was in sight. It’s rare to have strong economic growth, decreasing inflation and a simultaneous decline in interest rates.

OPEC forecasts that 2024 will see overall demand increase by 2.2 million barrels per day, with a 1.8-million-barrel increase in 2025.

In February, Saxo Bank reported a monthly Forex trading volume of $92.4 billion, down from $106.7 billion in January and a huge decline from $134.8 billion in December 2023.

Any moves above the 1.0860 level could see the 1.0900 psychological level come into focus, and beyond that, traders will be eyeing the 1.0950 level.

Optimism abounds and concerns over scandal and fraud are fading, but traders need to be aware that cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and almost completely reliant on trader sentiment for price changes.

A look at three recent scams in a bit more detail to understand how these scams work and what we, as traders, can do to avoid them

Markets predicted that the Bank of England would keep rates on hold today, which they did. This leant temporary support for the GBP/USD but will also put further pressure on the beleaguered economy.

A raft of other US economic data released at the same time were more mixed. Initial and continuing jobless claims both increased, and inflation for final prices of goods and services came in much lower than expected.

Traders are advised to keep a close eye on data coming out of the US, as well as any forward-looking statements made by policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic

Markets are still expecting/hoping for a cut in interest rates in March, though with the CBE Fedwatch tool showing a 65% probability this is still very uncertain.

CPI data will be released on Thursday and any increase in inflation will only further increase the possibility of a hawkish policy response.

As the end of the year approaches, it is time to look back over a turbulent and unpredictable 2023 in the financial markets. 

Forex traders will now turn their attention to Europe, where the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are both expecting to leave interest rates unchanged today.

The danger is that central banks will be forced into a decision they don’t want to make to protect markets.

The economic data seemed to run counter to recent statements from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who had warned on Monday that it was “not the time to start declaring victory” and that “headline inflation may rise again slightly in the coming months”.

Although Thanksgiving may have contributed to subduing the bears on the back of the Eurozone PMI data, chances of a decline look unlikely.

While the Rand looks likely to benefit in the short term, South Africa's overall economic health has weakened in 2023, and that weakness will likely continue.

With a deluge of communications due over the next two days, Forex traders need to understand the effect of policymaker statements on the markets.

Different fundamental factors are weighing on each commodity, and their outlooks are very different.

Less than two months after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to convince markets that it may raise interest rates again this year, the US Federal Reserve finds itself in the same boat.

The recent Bitcoin hype does not consider the possibility of the SEC rejecting Bitcoin ETFs outright. While this is unlikely, even a partial rejection would crash the market.

Crude oil prices are also being supported as long as the threat of a wider Middle East conflict remains.

Traders should be wary; the main actors in this conflict's long and bloody history are not known for their restraint, and all wars are unpredictable by their nature.

But with a US recession now looking likely and the EUR/USD heading deep into oversold territory, the outlook for 2024 is much less clear

The GBP is trading at a 6-month low against the USD and the EUR following the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% on Tuesday, 26th September.

With the ECB all but announcing an end to its interest rate hikes last week and inflation falling unexpectedly in the UK, it is difficult to see anything but bullish fundamentals for the USD in the near future.

With interest rate rises off the table for the foreseeable future and a forecast of continued high inflation and tepid growth, the longer-term outlook for the EUR looks bleak.

Geopolitical consequences aside, the extension of the cuts raises questions for central banks in their efforts to tackle inflation, the US Federal Reserve in particular.

The USD/ZAR has been on a wild ride this summer, and with the US Federal Reserve’s unclear stance on interest rates and the flagging Chinese economy, the turbulence is not over.

The cryptocurrency industry has rolled from crisis to crisis for almost a year now. With multiple pivotal events approaching that will define the future of the asset class, what could be in store for the market?

Robust US data has made it difficult for the EUR/USD to recover. Having tested the 1.0900 psychological support handle and dropped below it, it looks like it will now test new support around the 1.08500 level.

The price of gold (XAU/USD) dropped after briefly touching resistance at $1,930.00, influenced by the consistent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) results.

In a surprise aftermarket move on Tuesday, August 1st 2023, Fitch – one of the major debt rating agencies – downgraded US government debt to AA+ from AAA. 

Following the ECB rate hike, the EUR/USD fell over 70 pips in an hour, heading strongly towards oversold territory after breaking the 1.2500 level last week.

For now, things are quiet. But as with all ranging currency pairs, things look more interesting from a technical standpoint.

The DXY Dollar Index finished the day down -1.08%, its largest fall since January. The Dow jumped over 200 points before correcting later in the day.

With a July interest rate rise now all but locked in for the US, we can expect a continued upside bias for the USD vs other major currencies.

At the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, central bank leaders were unequivocal on the need for further monetary tightening. The DXY surged with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit particularly hard.

Volatility in the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue as traders look to a second day of testimony from Jay Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank.

Inflation is expected to remain high in the UK, diverging from the Eurozone and USA, where inflation is falling rapidly. UK interest rates should continue to rise as a result, supporting the GBP in the short and medium term.

The EUR bulls are back in control of the EUR/USD and it is clear that the markets do not believe that the Fed is going to continue hiking interest rates in the medium term, despite the hawkish rhetoric.

The current probability of a rate rise by the Fed is between 20-30%, so if there is a surprise increase, the EUR/USD will be hit hard and the DXY will make major gains.

The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.07 on the news, and the DXY was broadly lower – erasing any session gains.

Weakness in the USD was short-lived due to better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone and the debt ceiling talks in the US.

With the US default looking less likely, traders are pulling out of the USD and beginning to look further ahead.

The implications of a US default for global financial markets, including the EUR/USD, are generating attention, particularly considering the US dollar's haven status.

SARB pivoted away from market expectations today, raising the interest rate by .5% and citing currency weakness.

The pressure on the rand is relentless, but some analysts are optimistic. Is this optimism founded in reality?

This week the Rand hit a new record low amid increasing loadshedding and US accusations that SA provided arms to Russia. Chris provides some insight on why the Rand has been so negatively affected, and speculates on its future movements.

As expected, today's FOMC meeting resulted in a 25-basis point hike in interest rates. The market´s response was subdued; this hike had been priced in for some time.

All the major currencies were up against the US dollar following the latest CPI release. But the underlying data may wrongfoot the market in the weeks ahead.

Fears for the US economy continue to grow with job openings falling and a less-than-expected increase in private employment. But the USD has remained resilient.

Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the weak US jobs data ahead of Friday's NFP report.

Today in a surprise move, the Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the repurchase rate to 7.75%, a 50-bps hike. Markets had priced in a 25 bps hike prior to the meeting of the MPC.

Following the market chaos over the last two weeks, a relative calm has beset the markets. But the outlook for the USD remains uncertain as markets focus on monetary policy divergence in Europe and the US.

Chris from the podcast Let's Talk Forex with Alison and Chris shares his latest analysis of the effects of the Fed's March interest rate hike.

Last week’s spectacular collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), closely followed by Signature Bank, has spooked the markets, raised the spectre of a bank run in the US and opened a Pandora’s Box of pressing questions and concerns.

Following a 6-month absence, the MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 trading apps are back on the app store for iOS devices.

The US dollar index fell to a 9-month low amid dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell that sent bond yields tumbling and sparked a rally in stocks, dampening demand for the dollar. The index lost -0.89% in yesterday’s trading.

With the ZAR already on the defensive as one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies, it has been particularly susceptible to bad news. And there has been no shortage of bad news in the last few days.

Recent data releases in the US have surprised investors, with US economic growth remaining stubbornly resilient in the face of repeated interest rate increases by the Fed. But what does this mean for the markets in the mid-term?

Multiple news outlets are reporting today that OvalX (formerly ETX Capital) has sold its customer base to Capital.com, a major UK-based brokerage, and will be closing down.

The report highlights a record number of complaints, continued broker membership growth, and a decline in average compensation.

Predicting the DXY: Winter 22/23 Edition

The Rand has stabilised over the last 24 hours as investors were placated by better-than-expected GDP figures and a clear pathway to resolving the scandal engulfing President Ramaphosa.

On Friday 23rd September 2022, Apple quietly removed MT4 and MT5, two of the world’s most popular trading platforms, from its App Store. While the abrupt takedown has gone mostly unnoticed, it has created a furore in the Forex trading community and has reignited long-held concerns over fundamental security flaws.

Like CFD trading, the history of cryptocurrency is also a turbulent one, albeit a shorter and noisier one. Without going into a potted history of cryptocurrency, it is safe to say that its most famous aspect is price volatility. Which is where CFDs and cryptocurrency enter an unholy union.

The GBP crashes as the new UK government scares investors, is this just another example of the USD’s strength causing chaos in currency markets? How long can the Dollar keep on rising and what does the market volatility mean for Forex traders?